On the heels of the Rotoworld magazine and draft guide conference call last week, Evan Silva kicked off our 2012 preliminary rankings with his list of the top-10 players at each offensive fantasy position. Answering a few requests on Twitter, I'm adding my own lists and analysis below. Pat Daugherty is expected to follow suit later in the week.?
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Quarterbacks
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1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers ? The point guard for Mike McCarthy?s fast-break offense, Rodgers has finished first, second, and first in fantasy points the past three years while continuing to evolve as a passer. Jordy Nelson has emerged as one of the most efficient deep threats in the game, and Randall Cobb could do the same in the slot.
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2. Drew Brees, Saints ? I was tempted to go with Vick here, but Brees is simply too safe with three top-two fantasy finishes in the past four years. While Sean Payton is one of the most creative schemers in the league, the Saints offense hit its stride down the stretch last year with OC Pete Carmichael calling the plays.
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3. Michael Vick, Eagles ? If my fantasy sports philosophy could be boiled down to one sentence, it would be this: Give me the player with the highest upside in a best-case scenario. Vick may come with injury risk, but his fantasy ceiling is higher than any player in the NFL. I?m expecting a breakout season from Jeremy Maclin as well as a bounce-back campaign for DeSean Jackson.
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4. Tom Brady, Patriots ? Brady boasts two No. 1 finishes and a No. 3 in his last four full seasons. Acrobatic field-stretcher Brandon Lloyd will open up the offense, leaving defenses to pick their poison against Wes Welker and the two dynamic tight ends.
?
5. Matthew Stafford, Lions ? Stafford edged Drew Brees out for the league lead in pass attempts and shotgun snaps last season. The Lions failed to bring in new backfield blood, leaving Stafford and Calvin Johnson to shoulder the weight of the scoring once again. This offense looks more and more like New Orleans North each year.
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6. Cam Newton, Panthers ? I agree with Silva on two points: 1. The top six quarterbacks are fairly interchangeable. 2. Newton?s 14 rushing scores are unrepeatable. I just don?t expect to see a big leap in Newton?s passing numbers with the same personnel in place.
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7. Matt Ryan, Falcons ? New coordinator Dirk Koetter runs a more vertical offense, which should allow Ryan to take full advantage of explosive downfield and run-after-catch threat Julio Jones. Coach Mike Smith has made it clear Michael Turner will have a reduced role this season. Hopefully that leads to more snaps for Ryan out of the no-huddle formation that clearly plays to his strengths.
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8. Peyton Manning, Broncos ? Denver?s non-divisional schedule is a bear, Manning?s arm strength is in question, and the early season could be spent developing a rapport with his receivers. I will be targeting Eric Decker in every draft this summer, but I?m inclined to let someone else roll the dice on Peyton as a QB1.
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9. Eli Manning, Giants ? I?m an Eli convert. Last year was the first time I?ve seen anything resembling an elite NFL quarterback, and he continued to improve throughout the season. Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, Rueben Randle, and Martellus Bennett give Eli the best set of passing-game weapons in his eight-year career.
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10. Tony Romo, Cowboys ? Romo will miss security blanket Laurent Robinson in the red zone, but Dez Bryant has the talent to lead all non-Calvin Johnson receivers in touchdowns. When Romo is on the field, he always produces as a QB1.
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Just Missed: Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Josh Freeman, Robert Griffin III
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Running Backs
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1. Arian Foster, Texans ? The unanimous No. 1 overall pick, as chosen by the Rotoworld foursome of Silva, Wesseling, Mike Clay, and Pat Daugherty. Foster is slump-proof as one of the NFL?s most dangerous pass-catching backs in what has transitioned to a run-oriented offense.
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2. Ryan Mathews, Chargers ? Good luck finding a more efficient starting tailback. Mathews averaged 5.7 yards every time he touched the ball last season, tops among all backs with 200+ combined carries and catches. With Mike Tolbert out of the picture, Mathews? 222 rushes, 50 receptions, and goal-line looks can all be expected to spike in 2012.
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3. LeSean McCoy, Eagles - Those with a risk aversion should go the safe route and draft McCoy over Mathews. Although Shady won?t flirt with 20 touchdowns again, his fantasy floor is exceptionally high as one of the league?s best pass-catching backs in a highly explosive offense.
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4. Chris Johnson, Titans ? After averaging a fantasy-sabotaging 71.5 scrimmage yards per game in the first half of the season, Johnson spiked to 111.6 in the second half. One of the few durable three-down backs in the league, Johnson?s touchdown total should rise as the Titans open up the offense to showcase their explosive young talent.
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5. Ray Rice, Ravens ? Playoffs included, Rice has averaged over 400 touches per over the past three seasons. ?While that heavy workload has led directly to a pair of top-five fantasy finishes, it doesn?t bode well for his legs going forward.
?
6. Darren McFadden, Raiders ? The goal is to fill your roster with unstoppable monsters that give you an advantage over every other team in the league each week. Injuries at running back are common enough that you have to place a high value on the ones who score the most points when they are in the lineup. Is McFadden injury-prone or a victim of bad luck? At his talent- and production-level, I?m willing to gamble that it?s the latter. ?
?
7. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars ? Jacksonville?s defensive players were calling the new offense the ?greatest show on turf? at minicamp. That?s absurd, of course. The Jags will be lucky to rise to middle-of-the-road on offense, but the offseason additions at wide receivers (and the possible replacement of Blaine Gabbert with Chad Henne) should mean more scoring opportunities for Jones-Drew.
?
8. Trent Richardson, Browns ? If you believe the top analysts in the business, Richardson is the best back to enter the league since Adrian Peterson a half-decade ago. The difference between the two as rookies is that Richardson is already entrenched as the starter and possible three-down back whereas Peterson came off the bench behind Chester Taylor. Richardson is a darkhorse to lead the NFL in touches as a rookie.
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9. Adrian Peterson, Vikings ? I don?t doubt Peterson. Ever. He?s been the best running back in the league since he first stepped foot on an NFL field. He?s also the rare physical freak who refuses to be outworked. I won?t be the least bit surprised if he?s starting in the Vikings backfield to open the season.
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10. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks ? Lynch looks out of place on any top-10 list, I know. I?m less than thrilled about his presence here, but he?s now Seattle?s offensive identity after the offensive line gelled behind Tom Cable?s zone-blocking scheme in the second half of last season. Pete Carroll is going to keep feeding him the ball 20+ times per game.
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Just Missed: Matt Forte, DeMarco Murray, Jamaal Charles, Darren Sproles
?
?
On the heels of the Rotoworld magazine and draft guide conference call last week, Evan Silva kicked off our 2012 preliminary rankings with his list of the top-10 players at each offensive fantasy position. Answering a few requests on Twitter, I'm adding my own lists and analysis below. Pat Daugherty is expected to follow suit later in the week.?
?
Quarterbacks
?
1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers ? The point guard for Mike McCarthy?s fast-break offense, Rodgers has finished first, second, and first in fantasy points the past three years while continuing to evolve as a passer. Jordy Nelson has emerged as one of the most efficient deep threats in the game, and Randall Cobb could do the same in the slot.
?
2. Drew Brees, Saints ? I was tempted to go with Vick here, but Brees is simply too safe with three top-two fantasy finishes in the past four years. While Sean Payton is one of the most creative schemers in the league, the Saints offense hit its stride down the stretch last year with OC Pete Carmichael calling the plays.
?
3. Michael Vick, Eagles ? If my fantasy sports philosophy could be boiled down to one sentence, it would be this: Give me the player with the highest upside in a best-case scenario. Vick may come with injury risk, but his fantasy ceiling is higher than any player in the NFL. I?m expecting a breakout season from Jeremy Maclin as well as a bounce-back campaign for DeSean Jackson.
?
4. Tom Brady, Patriots ? Brady boasts two No. 1 finishes and a No. 3 in his last four full seasons. Acrobatic field-stretcher Brandon Lloyd will open up the offense, leaving defenses to pick their poison against Wes Welker and the two dynamic tight ends.
?
5. Matthew Stafford, Lions ? Stafford edged Drew Brees out for the league lead in pass attempts and shotgun snaps last season. The Lions failed to bring in new backfield blood, leaving Stafford and Calvin Johnson to shoulder the weight of the scoring once again. This offense looks more and more like New Orleans North each year.
?
6. Cam Newton, Panthers ? I agree with Silva on two points: 1. The top six quarterbacks are fairly interchangeable. 2. Newton?s 14 rushing scores are unrepeatable. I just don?t expect to see a big leap in Newton?s passing numbers with the same personnel in place.
?
7. Matt Ryan, Falcons ? New coordinator Dirk Koetter runs a more vertical offense, which should allow Ryan to take full advantage of explosive downfield and run-after-catch threat Julio Jones. Coach Mike Smith has made it clear Michael Turner will have a reduced role this season. Hopefully that leads to more snaps for Ryan out of the no-huddle formation that clearly plays to his strengths.
?
8. Peyton Manning, Broncos ? Denver?s non-divisional schedule is a bear, Manning?s arm strength is in question, and the early season could be spent developing a rapport with his receivers. I will be targeting Eric Decker in every draft this summer, but I?m inclined to let someone else roll the dice on Peyton as a QB1.
?
9. Eli Manning, Giants ? I?m an Eli convert. Last year was the first time I?ve seen anything resembling an elite NFL quarterback, and he continued to improve throughout the season. Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, Rueben Randle, and Martellus Bennett give Eli the best set of passing-game weapons in his eight-year career.
?
10. Tony Romo, Cowboys ? Romo will miss security blanket Laurent Robinson in the red zone, but Dez Bryant has the talent to lead all non-Calvin Johnson receivers in touchdowns. When Romo is on the field, he always produces as a QB1.
?
Just Missed: Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Josh Freeman, Robert Griffin III
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Running Backs
?
1. Arian Foster, Texans ? The unanimous No. 1 overall pick, as chosen by the Rotoworld foursome of Silva, Wesseling, Mike Clay, and Pat Daugherty. Foster is slump-proof as one of the NFL?s most dangerous pass-catching backs in what has transitioned to a run-oriented offense.
?
2. Ryan Mathews, Chargers ? Good luck finding a more efficient starting tailback. Mathews averaged 5.7 yards every time he touched the ball last season, tops among all backs with 200+ combined carries and catches. With Mike Tolbert out of the picture, Mathews? 222 rushes, 50 receptions, and goal-line looks can all be expected to spike in 2012.
?
3. LeSean McCoy, Eagles - Those with a risk aversion should go the safe route and draft McCoy over Mathews. Although Shady won?t flirt with 20 touchdowns again, his fantasy floor is exceptionally high as one of the league?s best pass-catching backs in a highly explosive offense.
?
4. Chris Johnson, Titans ? After averaging a fantasy-sabotaging 71.5 scrimmage yards per game in the first half of the season, Johnson spiked to 111.6 in the second half. One of the few durable three-down backs in the league, Johnson?s touchdown total should rise as the Titans open up the offense to showcase their explosive young talent.
?
5. Ray Rice, Ravens ? Playoffs included, Rice has averaged over 400 touches per over the past three seasons. ?While that heavy workload has led directly to a pair of top-five fantasy finishes, it doesn?t bode well for his legs going forward.
?
6. Darren McFadden, Raiders ? The goal is to fill your roster with unstoppable monsters that give you an advantage over every other team in the league each week. Injuries at running back are common enough that you have to place a high value on the ones who score the most points when they are in the lineup. Is McFadden injury-prone or a victim of bad luck? At his talent- and production-level, I?m willing to gamble that it?s the latter. ?
?
7. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars ? Jacksonville?s defensive players were calling the new offense the ?greatest show on turf? at minicamp. That?s absurd, of course. The Jags will be lucky to rise to middle-of-the-road on offense, but the offseason additions at wide receivers (and the possible replacement of Blaine Gabbert with Chad Henne) should mean more scoring opportunities for Jones-Drew.
?
8. Trent Richardson, Browns ? If you believe the top analysts in the business, Richardson is the best back to enter the league since Adrian Peterson a half-decade ago. The difference between the two as rookies is that Richardson is already entrenched as the starter and possible three-down back whereas Peterson came off the bench behind Chester Taylor. Richardson is a darkhorse to lead the NFL in touches as a rookie.
?
9. Adrian Peterson, Vikings ? I don?t doubt Peterson. Ever. He?s been the best running back in the league since he first stepped foot on an NFL field. He?s also the rare physical freak who refuses to be outworked. I won?t be the least bit surprised if he?s starting in the Vikings backfield to open the season.
?
10. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks ? Lynch looks out of place on any top-10 list, I know. I?m less than thrilled about his presence here, but he?s now Seattle?s offensive identity after the offensive line gelled behind Tom Cable?s zone-blocking scheme in the second half of last season. Pete Carroll is going to keep feeding him the ball 20+ times per game.
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Just Missed: Matt Forte, DeMarco Murray, Jamaal Charles, Darren Sproles
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Wide Receivers
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1. Calvin Johnson, Lions ? No-brainer. Megatron is the most unstoppable skill-position player in the NFL, and he has a quarterback whose strengths are perfectly suited to his own game.
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2. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals ? Fitz would be vying for the No. 1 spot if he had a Stafford of his own. He boasts four top-five fantasy seasons in the last five years, including three seasons with 1,400+ yards. Fitzgerald is a fantasy rock.
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3. Andre Johnson, Texans ? Johnson started the season with a three-game average of 105.3 yards and closed it out with 100.5 yards per in two playoff games. Although twin hamstring injuries essentially washed out the rest of his season, Johnson remains a stud when he?s in the lineup.
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4. Steve Smith, Panthers ? One of the few receivers who can produce WR1 numbers in the face of consistent double teams, Smith has a legit shot at the No. 1 spot if Cam Newton can increase his touchdown passes by 6-10 in his second season.
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5. Percy Harvin, Vikings ? Harvin managed to finish seventh in fantasy points despite not being featured as an offensive focal point until the second half of the season. From Week 10 on, Harvin averaged 103.3 yards and a touchdown on 11.3 touches per game. Extrapolated over a full season, those numbers would have had him on Calvin Johnson?s production level.
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6. Julio Jones, Falcons ? As fantasy?s top receiver from Weeks 14-17, Jones put quite a few trophies on the mantle in his rookie season.? Already a top-10 fantasy receiver on a points-per-week basis, Jones would have ranked fifth among all wide receivers and tight ends if his 11 full games were extrapolated to 16. He?s the most explosive run-after-catch receiver in the league.
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7. Dez Bryant, Cowboys ? Bryant finished 15th?in fantasy points despite raw route running, a nagging quadriceps injury, and an inconsistent rapport with Tony Romo. Predicting a true breakout,?RotoPat?points out that Bryant, ?unbelievably physically dominant,? seemed to take over at least one half of every game last year. He?s ready to put it all together in his third season.
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8. Hakeem Nicks, Giants ? Nicks removed all doubt about the identity of the Giants? true No. 1 receiver when he threw up a monster 28/444/4 line in the playoffs to overshadow Victor Cruz?s 21/269/1 showing. Cruz may prove to be a better value if you can get him a few rounds later, but Nicks is the better player.
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9. Mike Wallace, Steelers ? Don?t let the second half of last season full you. Wallace, not Antonio Brown, is the No. 1 receiver in Pittsburgh. Todd Haley?s Cardinals finished second in the NFL in pass attempts in his only two seasons as offensive coordinator. This will remain a pass-heavy offense.
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10. Roddy White, Falcons ? Roddy is so reliable that he reached the century mark in receptions while leading the NFL in drops last season.
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Just Missed: A.J. Green, Wes Welker, Greg Jennings, Jeremy Maclin, Victor Cruz
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Tight Ends
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1. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots ? Gronk has 28 touchdowns the past two seasons. No other tight end has more than 17 over that span.
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2. Jimmy Graham, Saints ? Drew Brees? new go-to receiver, Graham had 23 more targets than any other NFL tight end ? and 42 more than Marques Colston.
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3. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots ? If not for the early season knee sprain, Hernandez would have joined Gronk and Graham in the 1,000-yard club. As it was, he and Antonio Gates were the only other tight ends to reach nine fantasy points per week.
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4. Vernon Davis, 49ers ? Davis acknowledged after the season that he was overwhelmed by Jim Harbaugh?s offense early on. His last five games, including a dominant playoff run, project to 90 catches, 1,715 yards, and 16 touchdowns over a full 16-game schedule.
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5. Antonio Gates, Chargers ? With Vincent Jackson out of the picture, there?s certainly a valid argument that Gates should be as high as No. 3 on this list. Coach Norv Turner is confident that Gates is finally over his troublesome foot injuries, but at age 32 he may be past his prime.
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6. Jermichael Finley, Packers ? Finley finished fifth in fantasy points in a disappointing season, thanks in large part to a career-high eight scores. I?m expecting more consistency in 2012.
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7. Fred Davis, Redskins ? A first-time starter, Davis edged out bigger names Jermichael Finley and Jason Witten in points per game.? In fact, Gronkowski and Graham were the only tight ends to top Davis? 66 yards per game.
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8. Jason Witten, Cowboys ? Witten may be a picture of season-to-season consistency, but his week-to-week production was all over the map last year. After Dallas? Week 5 bye, Witten topped 50 yards just four times the rest of the way.
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9. Jared Cook, Titans ? Cook closed out the season as a top-eight tight end over the final five weeks despite getting shut out completely in two of those games. There may too many mouths to feed in Nashville, but Cook has the highest upside outside of the top-eight.
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10. Owen Daniels, Texans ? Nagging injuries and presence of rare tight-end vulture Joel Dreessen sapped Daniels? production in the second half of the season. With Dreessen out of the picture, Daniels should see an uptick in red-zone targets.
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Just Missed: Brent Celek, Coby Fleener,?Jermaine Gresham, Tony Gonzalez, Jacob Tamme
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